The Impact of Oil and Gold Prices’ Shock on Tehran Stock Exchange: A Copula Approach

Authors

  • Marjan Qazvini Ph.D. Student in Allameh Tabatabai University
Abstract:

There are several researches that deal with the behavior of SEs and their relationships with different economical factors. These range from papers dealing with this subject through econometrical procedures to statistical methods known as copula. This article considers the impact of oil and gold price on Tehran Stock Exchange market (TSE). Oil and gold are two factors that are essential for the economy of Iran and their price are determined in the global market. The model used in this study is ARIMA-Copula. We used data from January 1998 to January 2011 as training data to find the appropriate model. The cross validation of model is measured by data from January 2011 to June 2011. We conclude that: (i) there is no significant direct relationship between gold price and the TSE index, but the TSE is indirectly influenced by gold price through other factors such as oil; and (ii) the TSE is not independent of the volatility in oil price and Clayton copula can describe such dependence structure between TSE and the oil price. Based on the property of Clayton copula, which has lower tail dependency, as the oil price drops, stock index falls. This means that decrease in oil price has an adverse effect on Iranian economy.

Upgrade to premium to download articles

Sign up to access the full text

Already have an account?login

similar resources

the impact of oil and gold prices’ shock on tehran stock exchange: a copula approach

there are several researches that deal with the behavior of ses and their relationships with different economical factors. these range from papers dealing with this subject through econometrical procedures to statistical methods known as copula. this article considers the impact of oil and gold price on tehran stock exchange market (tse). oil and gold are two factors that are essential for the ...

full text

conditional copula-garch methods for value at risk of portfolio: the case of tehran stock exchange market

ارزش در معرض ریسک یکی از مهمترین معیارهای اندازه گیری ریسک در بنگاه های اقتصادی می باشد. برآورد دقیق ارزش در معرض ریسک موضوع بسیارمهمی می باشد و انحراف از آن می تواند موجب ورشکستگی و یا عدم تخصیص بهینه منابع یک بنگاه گردد. هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی کارایی روش copula-garch شرطی در برآورد ارزش در معرض ریسک پرتفویی متشکل از دو سهام می باشد و ارزش در معرض ریسک بدست آمده با روشهای سنتی برآورد ارزش د...

The Impact of Official Publication of Information in Tehran Stock Exchange on Shares Prices: A GMM Approach

Released information in stock markets plays an important role in making decisions by agents like brokers, investors and other market activists. Rational decision-making in these markets will be possible if relevant and significant information is being released on-time. Otherwise, transparency and equality in the market is compromised. This study aims to respond to the question of whether offici...

full text

The effect of government size on yields and stock prices in the Tehran Stock Exchange

Without government intervention, grow and achieve high levels of economic wealth is not achievable. Communities where a relatively high level of economic activity has been monopolized by the state, due to bureaucracy, rent-seeking, corruption and inefficiency, have failed to achieve significant economic growth. Easier to say that the involvement of zero or one hundred percent of the state's eco...

full text

the impact of portfolio assessment on iranian efl students essay writing: a process-oriented approach

this study was conducted to investigate the impact of portfolio assessment as a process-oriented assessment mechanism on iranian efl students’ english writing and its subskills of focus, elaboration, organization, conventions, and vocabulary. out of ninety juniors majoring in english literature and translation at the university of isfahan, sixty one of them who were at the same level of writing...

15 صفحه اول

Impact of Exchange Rate Shock on Prices of Imports and Exports

This study examines the significant impact of exchange rate shock on prices of Malaysian importsand exports. In methodology, the study adopts vector error correction (VECM) model using monthlydata of nominal exchange rates, money supply, prices of imports and prices of exports covering theperiod of M1:1999 to M12:2006. For further analysis, we adopt an innovation accounting bysimulating varianc...

full text

My Resources

Save resource for easier access later

Save to my library Already added to my library

{@ msg_add @}


Journal title

volume 1  issue 2

pages  23- 47

publication date 2014-03-21

By following a journal you will be notified via email when a new issue of this journal is published.

Hosted on Doprax cloud platform doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023